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Odds of death are basically a probability game for elders. There is nothing which causes them to specifically die at a fixed time, unlike TS2. Rather, death is randomly queued or not queued at some time in the day, and you can therefore dodge it indefinitely by rerolling the low percentage chance using save/reload, if you REALLY want to. Not that you'd want to.
Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I cannot accept, and the wisdom to hide the bodies of those I had to kill because they pissed me off.